A sport betting system involves the use of analysis to try and improve the odds in favor of the bettor. Because the sports books use their own systems for analysis and to set the odds, many bettors believe that devising their own systems can help them to win consistently. People also generally believe that no winning system can work for very long because the sports books will adjust the odds accordingly. Systems that tend to be short lived are called “trends” and single events that tend to influence betting one way or the other are called “angles”. Most so-called systems therefore tend to be a combination of trends and angles.
Most computerized systems are being based on one of two methods. The first is a mathematical 슈어맨 technique called regression analysis where all the past statistics are combined into multiple regressions and then used to forecast forward trends. Regression analysis can be reasonably accurate but obviously cannot take into account unforeseen future events such as an injury to a major player. The other technique tries to use statistics to pinpoint anomalies and thus provide an edge for the bettor. For instance, it is a well-known statistical fact that most point spreads in football betting tend to fall in the 3 to 7-point regions.
People who believe that betting systems are doomed to failure refer to the “law of independent events,” which holds that because each game is a completely independent event, no amount of past data can influence the outcome because the game itself has no memory of wins or losses. For instance, every time a coin is flipped, the chances of heads or tails coming up are exactly 50:50, regardless of how many times it has come up in the past. Moreover, the number of random factors that affect the outcome of the game are too numerous to be factored into any form of mathematical or statistical analysis. At the most, you could say that a study of all the historic statistics will probably lead to a slightly more informed decision. Proponents of betting systems point out that this slight edge is all that is required to win on a constant basis.